China’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2019

China's light vehicle (LV) market rose in 2014 for the third successive year, increasing by over 12% to a record 20.6 million units. Factory gate sales of trucks and buses fell in 2014 to 1.16 million units. This forecast anticipates a further rise in LV demand in 2015 to 21.9 million units. Growth is expected to moderate, but remain positive in subsequent years, topping 24 million units by the end of the forecast period. Within the overall forecast, the expectation is that the heavy truck sector will continue to out-perform.

China's new vehicle market - prospects to 2019

China’s light vehicle (LV) market rose in 2014 for the third successive year, increasing by over 12% to a record 20.6 million units.

Factory gate sales of trucks and buses fell in 2014 to 1.16 million units. The era of runaway growth in truck demand in China is at an end; China’s economic growth, although more subdued, is still expected to exceed 6% through to 2019, supporting fairly stable truck demand.

This forecast anticipates a further rise in LV demand in 2015 to 21.9 million units. Growth is expected to moderate, but remain positive in subsequent years, topping 24 million units by the end of the forecast period.

Within the overall forecast, the expectation is that the heavy truck sector will continue to out-perform.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Chapter 1: Recent light vehicle (LV) demand
  • Chapter 2: Market characteristics
    • Ownership levels
    • Segments
    • Distribution of LV sales
  • Chapter 3: Market shares
  • Chapter 4: Economic outlook
  • Chapter 5: Outlook for LV demand
  • Chapter 6: China’s HCV market
  • Chapter 7: Outlook for HCV demand
  • Appendix (Excel)
    • Historical vehicle sales by OEM group and brand (2010-2014)
    • Vehicle sales forecasts by OEM group and brand (2015-2019)

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