A new report published by Greenstreetsoftware.info examines the market prospects for light vehicles (LVs) and heavy vehicles (HVs) in Brazil in the period to 2022.
‘Brazil’s new vehicle market: Prospects to 2022’ (http://greenstreetsoftware.info/data/brazils-new-vehicle-market-prospects-2022) is available to download now from the research section of AutomotiveWorld.com.
During 2017, Brazilian light vehicle (LV) demand increased by almost 9.5% to over 2.1 million units. This was the first year of growth after four years of decline that took sales down by 45%. Heavy vehicle (HV) demand rose by 5.1% to over 67,000 units, the first year of growth after three successive years of decline left the market 70% below its 2011 peak.
The improvements in both sectors were primarily the consequence of Brazil’s improving economy in 2017, with GDP growth estimated at 1.1% – far ahead of the start-of-year forecasts.
Commenting on the Brazilian vehicle market, the report’s author, Jonathan Storey, said: “Although the Brazilian market’s recovery got underway as expected in 2017 and is forecast to gather pace, car and truck manufacturers need to bear in mind that this is anticipated to be a growth market, not a runaway market like China. Light vehicle volumes are expected to remain below their 2012 peak during the forecast period, but manufacturing capacity in the country is significantly higher than six years ago, boosting the level of competition.”
Storey noted that a recovery in demand is welcome, but added a note of caution: “Brazil’s structural problems have not been addressed and the chances of major reform continue to look slim, certainly this side of the October 2018 election.”
According to the report, LV demand is expected to rise by 11-12% in 2018 to 2.2 million units, while a more substantial rise of 20-25% is anticipated in the HV sector. Growth will continue in both sectors over the forecast period, with new HV emission standards due in 2023 likely to generate a pre-buy effect in 2022.
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